Nja, mja en vet aldri. Synd vi aldri kommer til å finne det ut (en regner med at det ikke går an å reise raskere enn lyset, ei heller i lysets hastighet mens en beholder massen sin, og det tar som kjent fra videoen, jævlig lang tid å komme seg rundtomkring i universet uansett).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equationThe main purpose of the equation is to allow scientists to quantify the uncertainty of the factors which determine the number of such extraterrestrial civilizations.
Some computations of the Drake equation, given different assumptions:
R* = 10/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 2, fl = 1, fi = 0.01, fc = 0.01, and L = 50,000 years
N = 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 50,000 = 50 (so 50 civilizations exist in our galaxy at any given time, on the average)
But a pessimist might equally well believe that life seldom becomes intelligent, and intelligent civilizations do not last very long:
R* = 10/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 2, fl = 1, fi = 0.001, fc = 0.01, and L = 500 years
N = 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.001 × 0.01 × 500 = 0.05 (we are probably alone)
Alternatively, making some more optimistic assumptions, and assuming that 10% of civilizations become willing and able to communicate, and then spread through their local star systems for 100,000 years (a very short period in geologic time):
R* = 20/year, fp = 0.1, ne = 0.5, fl = 1, fi = 0.5, fc = 0.1, and L = 100,000 years
N = 20 × 0.1 × 0.5 × 1 × 0.5 × 0.1 × 100,000 = 5,000
Verdt å merke seg at dette kun tar for seg vår Galaxe:) Og det finnes enormt mange galaxer
